Some extra info:
I would like to explore the key challenges of the real estate market and also discuss lesser-known examples from various fields where digitalization has progressed faster than in real estate (e.g., e-commerce and the development of the stock market). Examples from other sectors and some lesser-known facts from related fields will help us better understand the development of AI in real estate and foresee where it will be in 5 years, allowing us to capitalize on this.
The real estate market is slow, and there is a GAP (discrepancy) between market events and participants' reactions, which can extend up to 6-12 months.
The real estate market is characterized by its sluggishness, especially when compared to the stock market. It's not only slow but also relatively predictable. For instance, events such as changes in mortgage rates or economic crises usually reflect on demand within 1-2 months. However, during crises, especially in developing countries, there tends to be a trend of investing in real estate as a protective tool to preserve capital (meaning real estate sales don't drop but instead rapidly increase in the initial stages of a crisis). In contrast, changes in real estate prices following a demand drop occur within 4-6 months in developing countries (take Russia, Argentina, or UAE, for example) and within 2-3 months in developed markets (like the USA, where the market reaction is quicker due to greater transparency). Meanwhile, stock market prices can change by 50% in a single day.
By analyzing changes in real estate demand, one can accurately predict price trends in the real estate market for the next 4-6 months. If you're ahead of other market participants, it's almost impossible to lose: during a crisis, you need to be the first to sell properties, even at a discount, and at the beginning of a market rise, to understand this before others. This 'GAP' can be verified by comparing property price charts of a city with sharp changes in mortgage rates or with changes in the stock market. The entire market's sluggishness provides an advantage to those who react faster during a crisis. The key question is: how to understand what's happening before everyone else?
Most property owners are convinced that real estate values always increase, and this belief is reinforced by strong emotional attachment.
The emotional bond with real estate is strengthened by significant life events and the fact that people spend over 50% of their time in living spaces. This emotional attachment and belief in the constant increase in property values make the market resistant to sharp price fluctuations. Rarely do real estate prices drop more than 30% in a single year, a situation influenced by the limited number of listings on the market, supporting its stability.
The average annual real estate turnover is up to 2% of the total market volume, with approximately the same percentage of new housing being built annually. This means that a complete cycle of ownership change in the market occurs roughly once every 85 years. Additionally, the demolition of properties is rare, with up to 1% of housing being removed from circulation annually. This suggests that the volume of real estate in the market is gradually increasing. Therefore, the popular saying, "Buy land, they're not making it anymore," doesn't always align with the realities of earning from real estate. There is still plenty of land, and its value is often determined by surrounding infrastructure and nearby buildings. The market's low turnover and owners' emotional attachment make it more predictable than the stock market. Essentially, if one gathers as much data as possible and understands people's behavioral strategies, does this open up opportunities for low-risk, high-reward trading in the market?
Real estate has arguably created more millionaires than any other sector in the economy (hundreds of millions own a house worth more than $1m).
Although exact data is lacking, a general analysis of various factors suggests a certain logic. If we consider the total number of millionaires worldwide, real estate likely stands as the field that has produced more dollar millionaires than any other industry or asset type. Why? Because real estate is the world's largest asset, and its use is widespread across all demographics. Unlike the internet, which is used by no more than 95% of the world's population, everyone uses real estate, making it a unique and all-encompassing asset. Someone aiming to make millions of dollars is more likely to achieve this in the real estate market than in stocks, business, or any other sphere.
The average property purchasing process takes about 3 months, and from the point of initiating a property transaction to its entry in the transaction register, it can take up to 6 months (typically around 3 months).
The primary path of a real estate buyer starts with online searches, where the main traffic goes to listing boards. Developers of new constructions invest in advertising their projects. In the first month, a client usually contacts around 15 sellers, both through listings and specialized websites. This is followed by a period of 1-2 months, involving calls, messaging in WhatsApp, and visiting properties. Then, a down payment is made, or a booking form is signed for new constructions. Two weeks later, funds are transferred, followed by a two-week procedure for registering the deal. Government sources typically update transaction data about a month later. In the case of new constructions in Dubai, it can take an average of three months from payment to registry update. Therefore, from the first call of a buyer to the completion of the deal, it usually takes an average of three months, and about 5-6 months for this information to become available to global analysts. By analyzing the number of calls and requests, one can predict what will happen with demand and how this will be reflected in the registries in six months.
The food chain in real estate operates as follows:
The residential real estate food chain starts with the landowner, who often acquires it through inheritance or by law. This owner sells the land to a developer, whose financing is either through the founder's personal funds or through external investors. The developer designs the project and obtains the necessary documentation, often forming Joint Ventures where large investors and funds acquire a stake in the project, expecting up to a 25% annual increase.
As soon as the project gets visualizations and layouts, investors step in, buying entire floors for subsequent retail resale. Before the project begins, the developer tries to gather as many pre-orders (EOIs) as possible, involving retail investors buying 1-2 apartments. The final apartment prices at the project launch are set based on the volume of pre-orders.
Both retail investors and end-buyers participate in the project launch phase. Investors purchase real estate with different goals: for quick resale, for sale after a few years, or for rental to generate income from value appreciation and rental payments. When the building is completed, investors enter the market, renting out apartments for long-term or short-term leases, along with end-buyers purchasing homes on mortgages.
The next stage involves renters subletting or renting out properties daily, and those working in the secondary market looking for quick resale deals. Each stage has various financing options from banks and non-financial organizations, with more developed markets offering more financing options.
In one project on a single market, there can be up to 20 different real estate investment strategies with varying conditions and terms. Each participant seeks a return on capital ranging from 2x (less risky participants) to 5x (more risky participants) over the central bank rate. Current practice includes manual analysis of hundreds of projects in one city to determine the most promising for a particular project, using tools like Excel for data collection and analysis. Surprisingly, most projects eventually find their investors and buyers at all stages, although the question remains: are all these projects successful, or do the top 10% take everything, leaving the remaining 90% to pay for this success? It's likely that not all projects, and not even 50%+, can be more profitable than the bank financing rate at all stages of the project
The Real Estate Lending Market
Real estate financing, both from banks and non-banking organizations, is based on two key factors: 1) the value of the property and its liquidation value; 2) the borrower's income and their ability to repay the loan.
In lending, it is acknowledged that the loan amount usually doesn't equal the property's full value. To secure a loan, borrowers often need to have 10% or 30% of the property value as their own funds. This ratio, known as LTV (loan-to-value), should be the primary criterion in loan issuance.
Banks and lenders can always reclaim their funds by selling the mortgaged property through court, although this can be time-consuming, and sometimes there are social restrictions. Eventually, the property can be sold for about 70% of its value, and the lender recovers their money plus interest. The main task for the lender is to accurately assess the property's value and react to its depreciation over time through reassessment.
However, most banks focus on borrowers, missing a significant portion of the market, including investors who improve properties and find tenants. In the USA alone, the real estate financing market is developed and represented by a short-term loan industry worth $35 billion. The situation in the rest of the world is different: real estate is often financed through mortgages and is mainly available to stably employed staff of large companies.
How Real Estate Prices Are Formed and Non-Standard Cases
Real estate prices largely depend on their location, especially proximity to the city center. This trend is confirmed by analyzing 114 cities worldwide, except for resort cities and places where properties are mainly purchased by non-local residents.
The second most significant factor is the class or quality of the property, followed by parameters like the property's size, then hundreds of other criteria, including floor, layout, view, the presence of renovations, etc. Simplifying, location and proximity to the city center form about 70% of a property's value, while all other factors collectively make up about 30%.
However, there are exceptions that make up about 10% of all properties worldwide. These non-standard cases fall into two groups: 1) The reputation of the house or area - for example, an area known for housing celebrities, wealthy people, or government officials, may be more expensive, even if it's far from the center; 2) Community and amenities - in Dubai, for instance, proximity to the center is almost irrelevant, but the quality of amenities and infrastructure plays a significant role. This is because most buyers in Dubai are not locals (90%), for whom there's no attachment to work or historical ties to the city center.
Pricing in Resort Real Estate and New Cities
In real estate markets primarily bought by non-locals, such as in Dubai, pricing often depends not so much on location but on the quality and features of the community, such as cottage settlement characteristics, amenities, and the audience. The main driving force behind price growth in such markets is often an active advertising campaign by real estate agencies and developers. Their efforts to promote the market among potential buyers can significantly increase demand and, consequently, property prices.
For example, in Dubai, without intensive marketing campaigns, real estate sales volumes could be 80% lower. In cities dominated by foreign buyers, such as resort towns, new cities, or cities without a long history, demand for real estate is mainly determined by the volume of marketing efforts by developers and real estate agencies. The more it's talked about, the more active the purchases are.
External events can also significantly impact the market. For instance, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and subsequent mobilization actions led to an increase in demand for real estate in Dubai, which in turn doubled the value in some areas like Bluewaters, Palm, Bulgari Residences, Dubai Hills, and tripled the volumes of sales and rentals in a year.
Therefore, predicting the growth in value of real estate in such locations using traditional methods applicable, for example, in London, may be ineffective.
How the Stock and Share Market Has Changed from the 1980s to Today (useful to know because the real estate market is following the same path)
Before the 1980s, the stock market functioned without electronic trading systems. Trading was done by the Open Outcry method, where traders shouted and used hand signals to indicate their intentions to buy or sell, and communication with clients was maintained by phone. After the client's decision on the deal, the process could take from a few minutes to fifteen minutes.
Since the 1980s, the stock market has undergone active development and acceleration. Today, almost all stock trading is electronic, with transactions occurring in fractions of a second. Companies sought to outperform competitors by obtaining market information and making decisions faster, where even one second could provide a significant advantage in algorithmic trading.
The development and increased transparency of the stock market have led to a significant increase in its volume over the last 40 years due to attracting private investors and increasing capital in funds. This confirms that retail customers are inclined to enter markets with transparent rules of the game: the more transparent the market, the larger it is, and all participants usually benefit from its openness and transparency.
The second conclusion is that the speed of information retrieval and reaction in the era of technological development in the market allows earning billions. Although this advantage may disappear over time, the most capital is created when some have speed, and others do not.
Google was not the first internet search engine but outperformed everyone. Why? (useful to know because the real estate market is following the same path)
Google was not the first internet search engine, but it surpassed all competitors. Early search engines like AltaVista, AOL, and Yahoo were useful at the beginning of the internet's mass spread, providing access to information instead of long searches in libraries or through the yellow pages. However, as people became accustomed to the internet, they began to desire search results in seconds, not minutes.
Google stood out with its efficient search capabilities, allowing users to find the information they needed much faster than other search engines. This led to the joke that if you need to hide something, bury it on the second page of Google results, as most users never went beyond the first page, finding optimal results there.
Although Google's search technology was not unique in itself, the company quickly gained popularity. In 2000, Google was only eighth in traffic volume, while leading companies considered it a niche player. However, they ignored an important aspect - Google's potential in improving search quality. This could technically be implemented, but it did not fit their business models.
Google's key to success was its innovative business model with targeted advertising, launched two years after its founding. Unlike Yahoo and others who earned from selling banner ads with pay-per-view, Google focused on the quality of search and targeting ads, attracting advertisers and users. For other companies, improving search quality could have destroyed their revenues, so they did not bet on it and eventually lost. This lesson will be useful when discussing access to listings and ways to monetize users on online platforms.
Amazon survived the dot-com crash, and dozens of e-commerce companies did not (useful to know because it's not customary to buy real estate online, but that won't be for long)
During the rapid growth of the internet audience and the dot-com bubble, numerous companies launched the sale of various products online. These were sites like Pets.com (pet products), eToys.com (toys), Webvan.com (food), and Amazon, which started exclusively with books.
I believe Amazon's conscious choice to start with books played a significant role in their success. While toys, pet supplies, and food could easily be found in any store, a specific book had to be searched throughout the city. Amazon offered a solution to this problem, providing a selection 50-100 times greater than even the largest bookstores, along with convenient database search. This earned the company a loyal audience even during the dot-com crash.
Amazon's choice of product for online sales was deliberate, focusing on books. This helped them gain popularity and recognition. Only after a successful start with books did Amazon gradually expand its range, adding similar products like CDs and tapes. When a new market is developing, such as online real estate sales, choosing the wrong product category can be a critical mistake. The initial surge of interest from innovators may be followed by indifference from the majority of buyers, and the company may not gain fans in time. This lesson will be useful when discussing real estate sales online without realtors
Data Sources in Real Estate and Their Reliability
The effectiveness of AI in real estate directly depends on the availability and quality of data. In some countries, like the USA, extensive data such as MLS systems for advertising real estate, transaction registries, school ratings, crime statistics, census data, and more are available. However, even in these cases, data can be outdated or updated slowly and with difficulty.
In many other countries, like Russia, Germany, Indonesia, there are no public transaction registries. Data in government registries are often unreliable as people may understate transaction values in official documents to avoid taxes or for other reasons, and some or all of the transaction amount may be conducted in cash. Even data on mortgage transactions don't always reflect the real picture, as property valuations are often inflated to obtain larger loans.
Listing boards, while available in most countries, often contain inaccurate or false information. Realtors, especially newcomers, may create fake listings to attract clients and build a potential buyer database.
Thus, while the application of AI in the real estate market is possible, it first requires the development of technologies for collecting, processing, and even creating data to fill existing gaps. We will discuss how this can be implemented next.
How the Realtor Market Works in Developing Countries
On any real estate market, most transactions (ranging from 55 to 99% depending on the market) involve realtors. Real estate agencies or companies hire employees, train them, and in 99 out of 100 cases, their pay comes in the form of a share of the commission from transactions, usually split 50/50 between the agency and the agent. Agencies provide their employees with necessary resources, including client acquisition, office space, websites, business cards, etc. Agents, in turn, process requests and close deals. The extent of realtors' involvement in transactions varies by region: in Moscow, for example, the share of agency transactions in the new construction segment is about 30%, while in Dubai or New York, this figure exceeds 95%. The question arises: is it possible to completely eliminate realtors from the property sales process and move transactions online? This question is relevant as buying real estate for many is a critically important decision requiring human participation and support, both psychologically and procedurally. Real estate transactions are often complex and convoluted, and a small mistake can have serious consequences. The future role of realtors in real estate sales remains an open question.
Great, now that we have briefly covered all related fields and problems of how the real estate market operates, we can move on to AI in real estate and speculate on how the market will develop with this technology.